ACUS11 KWNS 160238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160237=20
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf States

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 160237Z - 160330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch will be issued across the central Gulf
States by 0330z.

DISCUSSION...Fast-moving upper trough is ejecting across eastern
OK/TX and the associated cold front is surging through the lower MS
Valley region, currently stretching from eastern AR into
south-central TX. An expansive corridor of pre-frontal convection
has developed ahead of the short wave from the lower OH Valley,
southwest into central LA. Over the last hour or so, thunderstorm
activity appears to be gradually sharpening across the lower MS
Valley with at least two bands of strong/severe convection that will
soon spread east of the MS River. Surface temperatures remain in the
lower 70s across much of the warm sector immediately ahead of this
activity, and mid 60s dew points have returned to central MS. While
tornado activity has been somewhat sparse to this point, intense
0-3km SRH warrants concern. Latest thinking is updrafts may continue
to mature and longer-lived supercells are certainly possible, though
an organized QLCS will be the primary storm mode. This MCS will
advance across the remainder of the central Gulf States later
tonight.

..Darrow/Hart.. 02/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!--nBOQzElZjRDy5nAxgH7G2DNs5bUzZ2hj4ZV45fkr22f5yQrWuIqolQ4GW7BzQzPYWMLPF2n= vwYnCL4IjrF5QXWmgU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LIX...

LAT...LON 30999162 35018822 34998491 30998843 30999162=20


=3D =3D =3D
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