ACUS11 KWNS 242023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242023=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas...southeast
Nebraska...northwest Missouri...southwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242023Z - 242300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a
risk for severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts are
possible by 5-7 PM CDT. This may include an isolated evolving
supercell near/east of the I-29 corridor between Kansas City and St.
Joseph.

DISCUSSION...Rapid surface pressure falls (2 hourly on the order of
4 mb) have been evident in the 19-20Z observations centered around
Topeka. This is within broader surface troughing encompassing much
of the central Great Plains, where models indicate modest surface
wave development along a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone.=20
It appears that low-level moistening and destabilization will become
focused within strengthening large-scale ascent associated with
downstream low-level warm advection, across northeast Kansas into
northwest Missouri through 22-00Z. This likely will be aided by the
approach of a mid-level short wave trough now turning east of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies.

To the east of a plume of relatively warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central Great Plains, it appears that a narrow
tongue of modest low-level moisture return (including upper 50s/near
60F surface dew points) will contribute to CAPE as high as 1000+
J/kg. As the large-scale ascent overcomes the mid-level inhibition,
the initiation of at least a couple of strong thunderstorms appears increasingly probable by early evening, in the presence of favorably
sheared, 30-40 kt southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb
layer.

The environment appears conducive to a risk for severe hail.=20
Additionally, modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and
sizable sub-cloud temperature/dew point spreads may support a risk
for potentially damaging wind gusts, even for increasingly elevated
storms to the east of the surface warm front forecast to shift into
the Kansas City/St. Joseph MO vicinity by early evening. It appears
that the most favorable shear and instability will focus in close
proximity to the front, providing support for the highest
probabilities for sustained supercell development. However, even
with sizable, clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the relatively dry/well-mixed boundary-layer probably will tend to limit the
tornado potential.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 10/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5lT4AjiP2DYAfhZQMxZQVi9aqGR4yZImtA7NOU0qR3XqpQVI2CZaUtNqTfsvwntZIw0J5jihw= wZ9fYFWTxm5Sj0dkyQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39259626 40029580 40779407 40099247 39609300 39259439
38909550 38859594 39259626=20


=3D =3D =3D
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