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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1994

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 26 14:58:30 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 261458
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261458=20
    WYZ000-261630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1994
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0958 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

    Areas affected...portions of central WY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261458Z - 261630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may sporadically produce large hail
    to near 1.25 inch diameter and strong gusts to 65 mph into early
    afternoon across portions of central Wyoming.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms have developed
    this morning within strong ascent associated with an upper shortwave
    trough now ejecting east/northeast across western WY. The 12z RAOB
    from RIW showed very steep midlevel lapse rates and cold
    temperatures aloft amid increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper
    level flow. This vertical wind profile will maintain
    elongated/straight hodographs as the system continues to progress east/northeast into early afternoon. This environment will remain
    favorable for marginally severe hail over the next few hours. As
    stronger heating occurs with eastward extent, steepening low-level
    lapse rates and only modest boundary layer moisture may foster
    isolated strong gusts as well. Given limited coverage and overall
    marginal nature of the severe risk over the next few hours, a watch
    is not expected.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9sAajPOD4SrHB4vuY7W7qMQRssZrbXN4DLOdhwDVN0zv8IjuCuS6v3glPNMoOJcm1nNRqchEN= mhWLRVcBf1AL05oC9g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 42800862 43360840 43940779 44260736 44500660 44530627
    44270561 43710536 43010589 42500653 42420735 42450818
    42800862=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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