ACUS11 KWNS 302041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302040=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...Far southern South Dakota into northern and
northeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 302040Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the next couple
of hours across north-central Nebraska. Thunderstorms will likely
intensify, likely into one or more supercells, as they migrate east
this evening. Watch issuance is likely to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows deepening cumulus
along a weak surface pressure trough and near a subtle surface low.
A few deeper towers have been noted over the past 20 minutes,
suggesting that MLCIN is quickly eroding as temperatures climb well
into the 90s. The remnant outflow from an early-morning MCS lies
immediately east of the initiation zone with relatively higher
low-level moisture and east/southeasterly low-level winds. These
conditions are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 3000-3500 J/kg
per recent mesoanalysis estimates. Additionally, the easterly
low-level flow under 30-40 knot mid-level winds are supporting
elongated hodographs with effective bulk shear values approaching 50
knots. As such, this environment should support well-organized
supercells with an attendant threat for severe winds and very large
hail (possibly up to 2 inches in diameter). Low-level veering may be
sufficient for strong low-level mesocyclones, but somewhat high
dewpoint depressions may limit the overall tornado potential -
especially with westward extent closer to the initiation zone. Weak synoptic-scale forcing for ascent limits confidence in storm
coverage to some degree, though recent CAM guidance appears to be
capture observed trends well and suggests one or two supercells will
become established this evening. Watch issuance will likely be
needed as this threat materialized.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8oj4uPzQibnWtKaSgTw4639Z1t48f_YdFpzdqikiHjkuWtX8cLGtnodJvA6cGue_ngqoAMQmo= B3-y4z2fsa60kT5GBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 40979933 41280020 41550057 41750074 42480132 42720150
43160145 43430123 43520080 43500038 43229892 42989799
42769716 42559669 42029641 41469640 41049661 40779701
40619744 40979933=20


=3D =3D =3D
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