ACUS11 KWNS 292350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292349=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-300115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...Portions of south-central North Dakota and
north-central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561...

Valid 292349Z - 300115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible across
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented broken line segment has shown
signs of recent intensification across portions of northwestern SD
into southwestern ND as of 2340Z -- with several deep/embedded
rotating cores along the consolidating cold pool. Over the next hour
or so, this trend may continue as the convective line continues
eastward. This will be aided by moderate surface-based
pre-convective instability (increasing with eastward extent) and
around 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per KBIS VWP) with a favorable
line-normal component to the gust front. Given steep deep-layer
lapse rates ahead of the line, severe gusts upwards of 65-75 mph
will be possible, along with isolated large hail. Ahead of the line,
a more discrete supercell mode persists, and these storms will pose
the greater risk of large to very large hail in the near-term.

..Weinman.. 07/29/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-s8iMKZMAsVHG8AnC6k6f2Yr6czRthdZYumJq5JhVZr9VsdZTCTQW2f6Q-ls6LIdMO8Sw5FHL= lt4Iuyw3VtiGQdoK1U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45220239 45730213 46580183 46740168 46860046 46760006
46419980 45559991 45000037 44830083 44810183 44950230
45220239=20


=3D =3D =3D
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