ACUS11 KWNS 281855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281855=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-282100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1718
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Areas affected...Northern Wyoming into far southern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281855Z - 282100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms developing across northern
Wyoming and far southern Montana will be capable of sporadic severe
wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is not
anticipated given the dispersed nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Isolated and transient thunderstorms have been ongoing
across parts of northern WY over the past 2-3 hours as
terrain-driven convection slowly deepens. However, more recent
visible imagery and lightning data show multiple deep updrafts
developing within the Absaroka and Wind River ranges. This trend
will likely persist as temperatures continue to warm into the
mid/upper 80s in the coming hours and reduce any lingering MLCIN
across the lower elevations to the east. Buoyancy will remain very
modest (100-500 J/kg MLCAPE) given the dry environment, but nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates through 2-3 km AGL should facilitate
efficient downward transfer of stronger mid-level flow as well as
bolster downdraft acceleration. Additionally, 40 knot winds within
the CAPE-bearing layer may promote semi-organized cells and/or
clusters. Severe wind gusts between 60-70 mph appear possible, but
convective coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely
scattered and should preclude watch issuance.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5jkNRRFvsQxuTck71Pno2TMmIFaLM5148b4ZIelOaZMiBEeC7C4Wc-FTr3h2d-3HjAdVMcsgX= hsmaWzKpBuQkwijkpo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 42730886 43050943 43570988 44251008 44691001 45030962
45510732 45750602 45660558 45430537 45170528 44850527
43240523 42730541 42560563 42470617 42570821 42730886=20


=3D =3D =3D
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