ACUS11 KWNS 171950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171950=20 MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-172145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...Eastern PA/northern NJ into western New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552...

Valid 171950Z - 172145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for primarily damaging straight-line winds
continues for WW 552.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorms across the watch area have begun
to loosely cluster into linear segments, and could potentially see
further organization given modest buoyancy and deep-layer vertical
shear of 40-45 kts. The greatest threat for damaging winds will be
with any mature, isolated updrafts that take on supercellular
characteristics, as well as any locally enhanced bowing segments
from merging/constructively interfering thunderstorm outflows. Steep
low-level lapse rates and relatively dry boundary layers/high MLLCL
heights will continue to support the downward mixing of thunderstorm
outflow winds.=20

The latest short-term guidance indicates that additional convective
development in the southwest portion of the watch area, primarily
Eastern PA into northern NJ, is likely around 22-02Z. The primary
threat with these storms will be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_o_zmEXQhY0KQyFfJDX25Pl618Z7CUKGBV55fuXby9PAeOrtB4LIqU-fPZblMuFAYSQQb8Ar= SpJ3aEvaF-NIwod6RY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 39737478 39807539 39807621 39787672 39817727 39847747
40347717 40907689 41317654 41707616 41937593 42187547
42397484 42807406 42917377 43007350 43297226 43177171
42747153 42347166 41707230 40917310 40167389 39797423
39737478=20


=3D =3D =3D
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