ACUS11 KWNS 020404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020403=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-020530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Areas affected...southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020403Z - 020530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for localized severe with a supercell as it moves
towards the MO River through 12-1am CDT.

DISCUSSION...A couple of stronger updrafts over the past hour have
developed on the southern flank of a band of storms over eastern NE.
Surface conditions with temperatures in the upper 70s with lower 70s
dewpoints in Gage County (immediate inflow) will become less
supportive near the MO River with temperatures likely holding in the
lower 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints. The latest RAP forecast
soundings show around 2000 J/kg SBCAPE near Beatrice with
surface-based buoyancy below 250 J/kg SBCAPE near the MO River. As
such, expecting the peak in storm intensity to have occurred or to
occur in the immediate short term before storm intensity lessens
with time.

..Smith.. 07/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5TzV5kL-cbjEWEiAHQEnNk6h2vBVTR6GSvLBJf-yWbhqWHVbakhMW_ykZLPyz-q7mtwDpbE-9= 6uishpIs4GOWudhGH4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...

LAT...LON 40679730 40919676 41059606 41019588 40859582 40699595
40509718 40559731 40679730=20


=3D =3D =3D
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