__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 496 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 070350Z - 071000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM MDT Sat
Jul 6 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northeast
Colorado Western Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 950 PM
until 400 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms will move rapidly east
across the watch area through early morning with damaging winds
likely and isolated reports of large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles west northwest
of North Platte NE to 20 miles east northeast of North Platte NE.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 27035.
...Bunting
WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 496
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW IML TO
50 WNW LBF TO 30 W MHN TO 30 WNW MHN.
..MARSH..07/07/19
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-075-091-101-111-113-117-135-171-070740-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR GRANT HOOKER KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS
THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 495 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 070300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402
..BUNTING..07/07/19
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-121-123-070300-
CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-033-105-123-157-070300-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF
WYC015-021-070300-
WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241
AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF MT...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of Montana extending south in the lee of the Rockies into
northeast Colorado.
...MT...
Late-evening model guidance suggests weak mid-level height falls
will spread across the northern Rockies into MT ahead of short-wave
trough that will advance slowly across the Pacific northwest. This
feature is expected to flatten northern Plains ridge by afternoon as
modest southwesterly high-level flow translates across ID/MT/SK. In
response to this feature, lee troughing should establish itself
across central MT by early afternoon providing the focus for
potential robust thunderstorm development. Strong boundary-layer
heating is forecast across MT such that surface parcels should
reach their convective temperatures by 21-22z. Thereafter, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop and move northeast toward a
more moist/buoyant air mass over eastern MT. Forecast soundings
suggest initial activity may be somewhat high based, but likely
discrete and potentially supercellular in nature. With time some
clustering is possible but supercells are also expected to persist
as organized severe threat advances across central MT toward
southern SK. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary threats.
Farther southeast across the High Plains of eastern WY into northeast
CO, much weaker shear will be noted within a weakly forced corridor
along the lee trough. Heating will prove instrumental in convective
development and a few storms should ultimately develop across this
region. Hail/wind would be the main threats with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 07/07/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154
PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, a fairly
significant mid-level closed low appears likely to continue gradually
migrating across the eastern Pacific during this period. It will
remain well west of the U.S. Pacific coast, but models suggest that
it will progress close enough that downstream troughing inland of
the coast will accelerate east-northeastward. As subtropical
ridging remains prominent across the Rio Grande Valley and
southern Plains, into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast,
the lead troughing is forecast to lose amplitude and broaden, with
several embedded smaller-scale perturbations translating across the
northern Rockies through the northern Plains. This will include
lingering remnants of a mid-level closed low, which likely will
slowly progress from just east of the Cascades into the mountains
of western Montana and adjacent portions of Idaho and Wyoming.
There still appears considerable spread among the models concerning
the other perturbations emerging from the Great Basin.
Farther east, the axis of downstream ridging is forecast to gradually
shift across Ontario, the Upper Midwest and middle Mississippi/lower
Ohio Valley region. However, models indicate that the center of
a broad and deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone will linger near
the southern Newfoundland and Labrador coast, and may maintain
considerable influence across much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.
An initial associated surface cold front may continue to advance
south of the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley, likely preceded by
at least a couple of substantive convective outflow boundaries.
As it does, it will continue to become increasingly displaced to
the south of the mid-latitude westerlies.
...Northern Plains... An initial modest surface cyclone likely
will continue to progress east-northeastward through this period,
well to the north of the international border, from portions of
central Saskatchewan through central/northeast Manitoba. However,
guidance is suggestive that another weak to modest surface cyclone
may begin to form across North Dakota by late Monday night, within
lee surface troughing extending south of the international border
through the Plains.
It still appears that the lee surface trough will become a focus
for moderate to strong boundary layer destabilization by late Monday
afternoon, particularly across the Dakotas, beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates on the nose of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air.
Southwesterly mid/upper flow across this region may remain rather
modest, but perhaps strong enough to contribute to sufficient shear
for organized convection, including supercells, posing mostly a
risk for severe hail and wind.
There still appears a general consensus that forcing for ascent
associated with approaching mid-level troughing will contribute to
thunderstorm initiation across the Dakotas by late Monday afternoon
and evening, if not before. However, more precise location, extent
of convective development and details of subsequent evolution remain
unclear due to sizable spread still evident within model output.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Kerr.. 07/07/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig southward into the
Great Basin today. Strong mid-level flow will overspread portions of
Nevada and western Utah. At the surface, troughing within the Great
Basin will enhance the surface pressure gradient ahead of a front
moving in from the northwest. Widespread elevated conditions will
exists across the Colorado River Valley, eastern Nevada, and western
Utah. Sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will be common across the highlighted area along with 10-15% afternoon RH. While meteorological conditions will be critical, an overall lack of widespread receptive
fuels precludes any upgrade to critical designation. Locally critical conditions are probable, particularly in western Utah where the
strongest mid-level winds are forecast. A few dry thunderstorms
are possible in north-central Nevada into southern Idaho; however,
higher RH values, a mixed mode of wet/dry storms, and marginal fuel receptiveness will limit lightning ignition concerns.
..Wendt.. 07/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Epperson's law:
When a man says it's a silly, childish game, it's probably
something his wife can beat him at.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A43 (Linux/32)
* Origin: HAMRADIO telnet lu9dce.dynu.com (21:5/101)