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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM

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WW 478 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 022030Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 478 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Tue
Jul 2 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern North Dakota
North-central South Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 330 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and
isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Two distinct severe weather episodes are expected this
evening. First, a couple discrete supercells should develop along a
cold front across far southern North Dakota. These will pose a risk
for large hail and a brief tornado, especially across southwest
North Dakota. Some of this activity may spread into north-central
South Dakota. The second episode is a cluster that should progress
east from the Montana/Wyoming border region, with severe wind gusts
as the primary hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Lemmon
SD to 40 miles south southeast of Jamestown ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 477...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 25030.
...Grams
WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MBG TO
20 N BIS.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 478 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED
IN TIME FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED AT 03/05Z.
..KERR..07/03/19
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-021-029-043-045-047-051-093-030500-
ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH STUTSMAN SDC021-031-041-089-129-030500-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY MCPHERSON
WALWORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE RAP TO
45 S Y22.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE EXTENDED LOCALLY
IN TIME FOR AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, WW 477 MAY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 03/03Z.
..KERR..07/03/19
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC093-137-030300-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MEADE ZIEBACH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0135 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS...
CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with wind damage and
hail are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the
northern Plains.
...Northern Plains... An upper trough will persist over the Pacific
Northwest region today, with a strong shortwave trough rotating from
central WA into western MT. This will reinforce a band of strong
midlevel winds across parts of WY/MT into the Dakotas. Afternoon
thunderstorms are once again expected over the higher terrain
of western MT into western WY, with a few strong cells expected.
As the activity builds into greater instability over the western
Dakotas by early evening, it appears likely that storms will become
more widespread and intense. A bowing line of storms capable of
damaging winds and hail is expected to move across the SLGT risk
area through the evening. Some guidance indicates the activity
may remain intense after midnight and track into the eastern Dakotas. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic regions...
The southern fringe of stronger midlevel winds will extend from
the Great Lakes region into New England. South of this zone, flow
aloft is rather weak and poorly defined. Nevertheless, abundant low
level moisture and moderate CAPE values will redevelop along an axis
from IA/IL into OH/WV/VA. While weak flow and ill-defined forcing
mechanisms will limit the overall organization of this activity,
a few multicell clusters capable of locally gusty/damaging winds
are expected.
...Coastal Carolinas and Florida... Despite weak flow aloft today,
large CAPE values are forecast to develop by mid-afternoon over parts
of coastal NC/SC and over much of the FL peninsula. Model guidance
suggests that thunderstorm development is likely, and may be rather
strong for a few hours until the available instability is overturned.
Locally damaging downburst winds may occur in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Nauslar.. 07/03/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235
AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central
Plains on Thursday. Storms associated with a few marginally severe
wind gusts will also be possible in the eastern states.
...Northern and Central Plains... Southwest mid-level flow will be
in place across the north-central U.S. on Thursday. At the surface,
a slow moving cold front is forecast to be located from northeastward
Colorado east-northeastward into northwest Iowa. Surface dewpoints
should be in the mid to upper 60s F contributing moderate to strong
instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be
limited across the region, low-level convergence along the front and
surface heating is expected to be enough for isolated thunderstorm
development. Any storms that can develop along the front, could
produce hail and isolated wind strong wind gusts. Convective coverage
is expected to increase markedly during the overnight period but
model spread is large concerning the area with maximum convective
coverage. Once this becomes more certain, an upgrade to slight risk
could be needed.
...Eastern States... An upper-level ridge is forecast to build
northward across the Northeast on Thursday as a minor shortwave
trough moves into the upper Ohio Valley. At the surface, a moist
airmass with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will be located
from the Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. In response,
low-end moderate instability may develop along the moist axis from
eastern Virginia into Maryland as the NAM, GFS and ECMWF models
suggest. Although shear should be limited, steep low-level lapse
rates and an inverted-V thermodynamic profile may be enough for
marginally severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon
associated with pulse storms.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 07/03/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA/VICINITY...
...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will continue over the
Pacific Northwest with a shortwave trough ejecting northeast over
the northern Rockies and another weaker one rotating along the
base of the trough over the Great Basin. In response, 700-500 mb
flow will increase over the Great Basin and into portions of the
Southwest. Surface pressure troughing will extend out of the Lower
Colorado River Valley into eastern Nevada and western Utah ahead
of a surface front oriented southwest to northeast from western
Nevada into northern Utah.
Elevated conditions will develop across a broad area of the southern Intermountain West today with critical conditions likely developing
in northwest Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah.
Southwest sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of
5-20% are expected across the region. Given recent lightning across
the region holdovers are a concern with the expected hot/dry/windy
conditions. ERCs and 100-hour dead fuel moisture values are mostly
near to above/below normal, respectively, with a couple of stations
around the 90th/10th percentiles.
..Nauslar.. 07/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will weaken and begin to move
out of the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. General troughing over the
western CONUS will continue with the center of the mid-level high
shifting eastward over southern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. A
surface boundary is likely to exist across the Great Basin with
dry/windy conditions to the south/east of it.
Elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of
southern/eastern Nevada, southern/eastern Utah, northern Arizona,
and western Colorado into far southern Wyoming. Sustained winds of
15-20 mph and RH values of 8-20% are likely to develop during the
afternoon and into the evening across the region. Locally critical
conditions may be possible, especially across portions of northwest
Arizona, southeast Nevada, and southwest Utah. Fuels, especially
fine fuels are likely to receptive to ignition/spread with holdovers
remaining a concern after recent lightning.
..Nauslar.. 07/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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It appears that after his death, Albert Einstein found himself working as
the doorkeeper at the Pearly Gates. One slow day, he found that he had
time to chat with the new entrants. To the first one he asked, "What's
your IQ?" The new arrival replied, "190". They discussed Einstein's theory
of relativity for hours. When the second new arrival came, Einstein once
again inquired as to the newcomer's IQ. The answer this time came "120".
To which Einstein replied, "Tell me, how did the Cubs do this year?" and they proceeded to talk for half an hour or so. To the final arrival, Einstein
once again posed the question, "What's your IQ?". Upon receiving the answer "70", Einstein smiled and asked, "Got a minute to tell me about VMS 4.0?"

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