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WW 601 SEVERE TSTM IA MN SD 200455Z - 201200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 601 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Mon
Aug 19 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central
Iowa Far southwest Minnesota Far southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1155 PM
until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely
with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large
hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...Multiple elevated supercells will likely develop through
the early morning hours before growing upscale into a linear cluster
that may eventually bow across central to south-central Iowa.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east of Lamoni
IA to 15 miles west northwest of Worthington MN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 33030.
...Grams
WW 0601 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0601 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102
AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MN...
...SUMMARY... An organized cluster of thunderstorms capable of
severe wind gusts and hail will overspread portions of the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Hail and isolated strong
winds are also possible across portions of Minnesota this morning.
...Mid MS Valley eastward across the OH Valley... An organized MCS
will likely be moving through south-central/southeast IA early this
morning. Expectation is for this MCS to be near its mature phase
at this point with a well-developed rear-inflow jet and strong
cold pool resulting in strong wind gusts. A few of these gusts
could be greater than 75 mph. As the MCS continues southeastward
through northwest MO and central IL later this morning and into
the early afternoon, it is expected to gradually lose intensity
as its cold pool accelerates and loses depth. By the time the MCS
reaches IN and western KY, it is expected to be characterized by
weakly organized multicells along the cold pool. Even with this
anticipated weakening, strong wind gusts are still possible.
...Central High Plains/Central Plains... A cold front is
expected to push into the Upper Midwest and central Plains,
likely extending from western WI southwestward into northeastern
CO during the late afternoon. Moist upslope flow is anticipated
into eastern WY/northeast CO behind this front, with the
resulting convergence along the lee trough expected to result in
thunderstorm initiation. Downstream environment characterized by
strong buoyancy and at least moderate vertical shear will support
supercell storm structures capable of very large hail and strong
wind gusts. These storms are expected to continue eastward into
NE during the evening. A strengthening low-level jet will lead to
a reinvigoration of any ongoing storms and/or development of new
storms, primarily across central and eastern NE. Given the presence
of ample low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates, large
hail is probable with these storms. Isolated very large hail (i.e.
greater than 2" in diameter) is possible. Dry mid-levels could also
contribute to strong wind gusts.
...Upper Midwest... Ample low-level moisture and steep mid-level
lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy ahead of the approaching
cold front this morning across northern/central MN. Stable low-levels
(below 850 mb) will likely limit storm strength but large hail and
occasional strong gusts through the stable layer are possible.
...Northern Mid-Atlantic... Showers and thunderstorms will
likely develop during the afternoon within the moist and diurnally
destabilized air mass across the region. Vertical shear will be
weak, leading to predominately disorganized, outflow-dominant
multicells. Even so, the very moist air mass and steep low-level
lapse rates support water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging
wind gusts.
..Mosier/Nauslar.. 08/20/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254
AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Wednesday
over parts of the Northeast, and over much of the central Plains
into the mid Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind gusts and marginal
hail are possible in both regions.
...Synopsis... An upper low will move from Ontario into Quebec,
with a leading shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes during
the day and New England overnight. A cold front will stretch from
southwest Ontario to IL by late afternoon, with mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints spreading into the Northeast. Aiding moisture advection
as well as low-level shear will be southwesterly 850 mb winds
increasing to 25-30 kt, while mid to upper level winds increase
throughout the period.
To the west, a convectively reinforced boundary is expected across
northern MO, KS, and into eastern CO, with a very moist and unstable
air mass to the south. Bouts of thunderstorms are likely throughout
the period near this boundary, with the greatest concentration over
MO, closer to the Great Lakes trough influence.
...Northeastern states... Heating will lead to numerous
thunderstorms across the moist sector by 18Z over much of
NY and northeast PA, expanding across New England during the
afternoon. Around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear and 100-150 m2/s2
effective SRH will be sufficient to sustain severe storms, including
isolated supercells capable of marginal hail, a brief/weak tornado,
or damaging wind. Due to the expected large number of storms,
mergers are likely, and a few line segments may form as well. Storms
may persist well into the evening and overnight into northern New
England when the stronger height falls occur.
...Central Plains into the Mid MS and lower OH Valley... Storms are
expected to be ongoing from NE across MO and into IL Wednesday
morning along an east-west oriented front, and where substantial
instability will exist. This outflow-reinforced front will likely
translate south during the day, with continuous areas of storms
over KS, MO, and IL. Winds aloft will generally be westerly and
below 20 kt, thus disorganized storms are most likely. However,
a few small bows are possible, with localized areas of wind damage.
Given such strong instability, the strongest storms may produce hail.
To the west, east/northeast surface winds will bring a moist air
mass into east-central WY and CO, where capping will be a concern.
Storms are likely to form over the higher terrain, with a narrow
north-south zone of hail or wind threat. Other storms are likely
farther south in the well-mixed and hot air, from northeast NM
across northern OK and AR, with localized downbursts possible.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Jewell.. 08/20/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to amplify over
the western CONUS into western Canada today as an upper-level
shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Subtropical
moisture will begin to move northward into the Southwest and
eastward into southwest Montana from the northern Plains. A surface
cold front will push southward up against the eastern slopes of the northern/central Rockies with hot/dry/unstable conditions prevailing
across much of the Intermountain West.
Isolated dry thunderstorms may form across southwest Montana
and northwest Wyoming this afternoon/evening. However, given
the uncertainty regarding coverage and marginal fuel conditions
where storms are currently forecast to develop, an isolated dry
thunderstorm area was not included.
..Nauslar.. 08/20/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies tomorrow. The
trough will likely deepen and stretch through northern California and
much of the Great Basin. An associated surface cold front will move
eastward across the Pacific Northwest and into northern California,
the northern Great Basin, and the northern Rockies.
Dry/breezy conditions will likely develop across portions of the
Columbia Basin/Gorge and into central/eastern Oregon ahead of the
approaching cold front. Elevated/locally critical conditions may
develop, but the window for these conditions should be relatively
short-lived and followed by cool/moist conditions. Thunderstorms
may also develop along/ahead of this cold front across eastern
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle and western Montana. However,
given the higher precipitable water values (0.8-1.2") along/just
ahead of the cold front and the cool/moist airmass behind the front,
an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not included.
..Nauslar.. 08/20/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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