ACUS02 KWNS 090636
SWODY2
SPC AC 090635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through
northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move
slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest
mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late
in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As
scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded
thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present.
Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will
keep potential for severe weather quite low.

..Wendt.. 02/09/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100630
SWODY2
SPC AC 100628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather
is not currently anticipated.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the
West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into
the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains
into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas
Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of
this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary.
This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward
progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain
regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in
southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level
jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent
will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse
rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft
intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional
isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau
into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm
advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the
cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could
produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too
isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities.

..Wendt.. 02/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110639
SWODY2
SPC AC 110638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will
begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the
mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a
southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low
will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the
mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer
Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far
north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through
the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday
morning.

...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the
surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial
extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less
clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM
guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment,
low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of
Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far
north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues
into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly
parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear
vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong
low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet
moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama
during the afternoon.

The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley
to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly
destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain.
Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and
the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk
for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much
progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves,
convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging
winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front
during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and
weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which
reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become
much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia.

..Wendt.. 02/11/2025

$$
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