ACUS11 KWNS 051257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051256
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-051530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...southern Ohio...western West Virginia...northeastern Tennessee and far western Virginia.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051256Z - 051530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The atmosphere is destabilizing this morning across the Tennessee/Ohio Valley which may support an increased severe weather
threat.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has continued through much of the
overnight period with 30 to 40 knot convective wind gusts and
sporadic wind damage. The airmass ahead of these storms is very
moist with dewpoints in the mid 70s and a mean mixing ratio of 17.8
g/kg on the 12Z BNA RAOB. In addition, the wind profile is more
favorable than anticipated with 40 knots of effective shear.
Inhibition will be eroded by mid to late morning as temperatures
warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of this line of storms.
Modifying the 12Z BNA RAOB for mid 80F temperatures suggests
2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with a mostly uncapped surface parcel.
Therefore, expect the storms in this line to intensify by mid to
late morning with an increasing damaging wind threat.

The 12Z ILN RAOB showed significant drying from 00Z, indicating the
prohibitive environment north of the front which is currently across
southern Ohio. Therefore, expect the severe weather threat to be
confined to areas south of this boundary.

..Bentley/Smith.. 07/05/2024

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36588554 37548538 38798486 39188258 39308168 38278133
37138156 36188269 35638420 35558521 35648546 36588554
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