ACUS11 KWNS 061702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061701
NCZ000-VAZ000-061900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina into extreme
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061701Z - 061900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for a few severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or
two may increase as storms attempt to intensify through the early to
mid afternoon hours. Convective trends are being monitored for the
need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...A primary confluence band of showers with embedded
convective cells (evident via MRMS mosaic radar imagery and NLDN
lightning data) continues to progress eastward across the Carolina
Piedmont in tandem with modest surface troughing and the eastward
advancement of an upper trough. Ahead of this band of precipitation,
surface temperatures have been slow to warm (e.g. mid 70s F) given
appreciable cloud cover. Despite modest boundary-layer mixing
beneath mediocre mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km per 16Z
mesoanalysis), the boundary layer is quickly moistening. Mid 60s to
near 70 F surface dewpoints are advecting northward into central NC,
boosting MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg. Furthermore, stronger southwesterly
500 mb flow atop 25 kts of 850 mb south-southwesterlies is yielding
up to 45 kts of effective bulk shear, which will support some
organization of transient supercells and short line segments.
Regional VADs show relatively short and mainly straight hodographs,
suggesting that the primary threat with these storms will be
damaging gusts, though a tornado is still possible.

Thunderstorms are gradually intensifying, and the latest
high-resolution guidance suggests that thunderstorms may appreciably
strengthen in the 18-20Z period. Given the gradual intensification
trends, conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of a
WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7VH8Tj_c0Wl6aY_M5paMF6HTdIsZLbp8dVapvxAlnGyYKRU5NvHg_0SUw4rBGgOkWSpidDiLO8cZiwZT-3bE2voG6_I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34167777 34057827 34097867 34257889 34587901 35827812
36457742 36867683 36867650 36557605 36057595 35287628
34637703 34167777

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)