• Core of Lowell moving near Niihau

    From Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 10:13:34 2026
    000
    WTPA34 PHFO 081153
    TCPCP4

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Lowell Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
    NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
    Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM HST Tue Sep 08 2026

    ...CORE OF LOWELL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NIIHAU...
    ...DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POWERFUL WAVES STILL
    IMPACTING KAUAI COUNTY...


    SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.9N 160.8W
    ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
    ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
    * The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
    French Frigate Shoals

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Oahu

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected within the warning area.

    For storm information specific to your area, including possible
    inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
    local National Weather Service forecast office.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was located
    by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.9
    North, longitude 160.8 West. Lowell is moving toward the north near
    18 mph (30 km/h). This general motion is forecast through today,
    taking the core of Lowell farther from Kauai County. Lowell is then
    forecast to turn toward the northwest and west and slow down on
    Wednesday and Thursday after passing the main Hawaiian Islands.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected during the next
    few days.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
    miles (315 km). Lihue Airport (PHLI) along the southeastern coast of
    Kauai recently reported sustained winds of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a
    gust to 75 mph (121 km/h). Daniel K Inouye International Airport
    (PHNL) in Honolulu recently reported a gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches)
    based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
    PHFO.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring across portions of Kauai
    County. Wind speeds atop and on the windward and leeward sides of
    hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the
    near-surface winds. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts,
    are occurring on Oahu.

    Hurricane conditions are ongoing in the Papahanaumokuakea
    Marine National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals.

    RAINFALL: Lowell is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
    of 4 to 8 inches for Kauai, with maximum storm totals of 24 inches
    possible. For the Big Island, an additional 3 to 8 inches of rain is
    expected with isolated storm totals of 12 inches possible. For Oahu
    and Maui County, an additional 2 to 5 inches of rain is expected
    with isolated storm totals of 10 inches possible. This rainfall may
    produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across
    Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
    Graphic available at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?rainqpf

    STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
    normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
    moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
    following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
    the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

    Kauai County...2-4 ft, with the highest expected values along the
    south coast of Kauai and the island of Niihau
    Oahu...Up to 1 ft

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
    the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
    large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
    relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
    greatly over short distances.

    For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
    please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
    available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?peakSurge.

    TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible near Kauai and Niihau
    through the overnight period. A few tornadoes are also possible
    across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands.

    SURF: Swells from Lowell will continue to generate life-threatening
    surf and rip current conditions during the next few days across many
    of the Hawaiian Islands. Please consult products from your local
    weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
    NNN
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