ACUS11 KWNS 072230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072230
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-080000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Nebraska and far
northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072230Z - 080000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging/severe wind gusts and perhaps an
instance of marginally severe hail may occur with developing
thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing along a
weak surface boundary/confluence zone across southwestern
NE/northwestern KS where latest objective analysis suggests MLCIN
has eroded. Latest surface observations within the inflow
environment show that temperatures are approaching 100 F, with
dewpoints in the low 60s F. Modifying the nearby 18z LBF observed
sounding for these conditions depicts a well-mixed boundary layer
with very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and an MLLCL height
above 2.5 km. While available buoyancy remains somewhat modest
(1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), this thermodynamic environment is
supportive of efficient evaporative cooling, which may foster a risk
for isolated damaging/severe wind gusts. This activity is also
located along the southeastern periphery of stronger mid/upper-level
flow, but effective shear of around 30-35 kts and the aforementioned
steep mid-level lapse rates may be sufficient for an isolated
instance of marginally severe hail.

With the eventual onset of nocturnal cooling (and the indication
that some convective inhibition may remain within the downstream
environment), the temporal window for the severe risk may remain
rather brief. With the added expectation for this risk to remain
isolated, watch issuance is considered unlikely.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 09/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!60v6Pd3K6pkv46-CaEXvqL5I4CAy0yOi1z0uaY6kAGwzXvlv51xi0raqHr15FXeWONKIk8DcgYIalkvAovdKPaLuOkM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 40479954 40339959 39830016 39400131 39370192 39550211
39870204 40300170 41000067 41020056 41160008 41079966
40759952 40479954

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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