ACUS11 KWNS 072053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072053
NDZ000-072300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...western/central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 072053Z - 072300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat may evolve this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus field across northern/central North Dakota
has become increasingly agitated this afternoon, with attempts at
initiation. At least one tower has sustained with reflectively now
on radar. Air mass recovery has been ongoing through the afternoon
across this region after morning convection. Temperatures warmed
back into the 80s to 90s along and west of a pseudo dryline/cold
frontal boundary/surface low interface.

Forcing for ascent is overall weak, with the vorticity max upstream
across Montana for now, but will increase this evening with the
increasing low-level jet. The 18z RAOB from BIS sampled a moderately
unstable air mass with a clockwise turning hodograph and ample deep
layer shear. Conditionally, the moderately unstable and strongly
sheared environment would support supercells, capable of large hail,
damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Trends in CAM guidance through
the day for less and less convective signal lead to low confidence
in the overall scenario, but, it does appear that at least isolated
supercells may develop. This area will be monitored for watch
potential.

..Thornton/Hart.. 09/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-U4m-gX-Dl2mmrZqLc8yua5sMJ_xv55UJDsUuw8w-cO3uUEkUenyOvI7wOpFGV3hUaV6AnqG1KS3xbYEVko2YKQO9RU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48970357 48390318 48000291 47590259 47030200 46630134
46500091 46610039 47119992 48019955 48689997 48830025
49040095 48970357

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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