ACUS11 KWNS 071859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071858
NDZ000-MTZ000-072100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071858Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of strong to severe wind possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms moving eastward across
central/eastern Montana has become more organized and produced gusts
up to 59 mph. This cluster is moving into a region of more favorable
deep layer shear for organization, however, thermodynamic profiles
remain fairly marginal. Steepening lapse rates are steadily moving
northward across southern Montana but fairly poor low-level lapse
rates remain across central/northern Montana. Temperatures have
warmed into the low to mid 70s (low 80s near the North Dakota
border) with MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. Additional heating is
likely downstream across far eastern Montana, where there is limited
cloud cover. It remains uncertain whether this additional heating
will be enough to support a more organized severe threat and as such
a watch is not currently anticipated. A few strong to severe gusts
will be possible as the line continues eastward.

..Thornton.. 09/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7T0jI7z4sjiymmTyS_vJqffi8ptGACpWsNlmtdF5FJoiTjdlwi9QSz5J5OVlIXFvGcUgiwBgwrvWj-Ke-5RLiCljADc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46230818 46280501 46530442 46920410 47480398 48030419
48430457 48550537 48380688 47560904 47500908 46640897
46210862 46230818

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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