ACUS11 KWNS 070012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070012
NDZ000-070215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...parts of northwestern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 070012Z - 070215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development may be maintained through
the 7-9 PM MDT time frame, with some growth into a larger cluster of
storms possible. This may pose a continuing risk for large hail,
and perhaps some increase in strong to severe gusts. Due to its
relatively isolated nature, a severe weather watch is not currently anticipated, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development has been ongoing the
past hour or two, with a more substantive, sustained supercell now
ongoing across western North Dakota, to the east of Sidney MT. This
appears focused beneath a bit more strongly difluent/divergent upper
regime than areas near lee surface troughing southward through the
high plains. Due to pronounced veering of low-level southeasterlies
to mid/upper west-southwesterlies, shear is strong, but
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow appears a rather modest 20 kt.

With little change to the large-scale regime, aside from modest
nocturnal southerly low-level jet strengthening, the ongoing storm
may show little net movement over the next several hours. Some
upscale growth is possible along/above a strengthening cold pool,
though how long this is maintained in the presence of strengthening
mid-level inhibition with diurnal cooling remains unclear.

..Kerr/Smith.. 09/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8FJHpgEm1QJvt-ANANreFa3upRVqFPXEedgROEhKZLK0RZjgta71DOn9iScvuZsg0tVcJxOEpSgUZej5rVLGzq_uL-Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON 48280355 48320240 47860192 47510231 47390366 48280355

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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