ACUS11 KWNS 061828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061828
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-062030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Northern/central MS/AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061828Z - 062030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Localized damaging winds are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to develop this afternoon across
parts of northern MS/AL, within a very warm, moist, and uncapped
environment. MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg is already in place as
temperatures approach 100 F. Steep low-level lapse rates and
relatively large PW will support downburst potential across a broad
region. Deep-layer shear is weak (generally 20 kt or less), though
northerly deep-layer flow may eventually support one or more
southward-moving clusters, if sufficient coverage of storms and
attendant outflow can be realized.

Within the broader area, 12Z HREF guidance generally depicts greater
storm coverage later this afternoon across northern/central MS.
Greater coverage of building cumulus across northern MS supports
this scenario, which may lead to a relatively greater wind-damage
threat in this area. However, the thermodynamic environment will be
similarly favorable for downbursts across AL, even if storm coverage
is somewhat less.

..Dean/Gleason.. 09/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8tSotdP_bXu63_crjMAlWY9N_6Nn9NupVnE7I7rAmJ_ttxgGPix2zvfyl6dHdqWFD97E5EIRbIrF-o2w1sJkxwz12_s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34649051 34668949 34698799 34448567 32228505 32588814
32748932 32949060 33089109 33509124 34649051

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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