ACUS11 KWNS 061749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061748
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-062015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Ozarks vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061748Z - 062015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated downbursts are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed across the higher
terrain of northern AR, with building cumulus noted elsewhere from
eastern OK into southern MO. Temperatures are warming quickly to
near/above 100 F, and additional storm development is expected
through the afternoon as any remaining MLCINH diminishes across the
region. Weak deep-layer shear should limit storm organization,
though deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates will support
potential for localized downbursts. It remains unclear if storm
coverage will become sufficient for substantial outflow
amalgamation, but weak north-northeasterly deep-layer flow could
lead to one or more small outflow-driven clusters that would tend to
move southward later this afternoon.

..Dean/Gleason.. 09/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_lmoYYgbyaeSk8ou70dm3gjENFHBaHQ4Ehe6_ah5sqsIT-RCDQGKqBR2QKaT5l66x-7mnbFa9Fzw1PrvnfjmAxQYrN0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34669516 36509525 37339450 37749359 37569181 37069130
36159110 35459098 34369179 34199471 34669516

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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