ACUS11 KWNS 061518
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061518
NDZ000-061645-

Mesoscale Discussion 2249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western/central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061518Z - 061645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm evolution is uncertain, but a threat for isolated
hail and strong/damaging gusts may persist through the morning.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous elevated storms have developed across western
ND, apparently in association with a low-amplitude midlevel
shortwave trough approaching the area from eastern MT. Steep
midlevel lapse rates will continue to support moderate elevated
buoyancy, while effective shear will remain sufficient for some
storm organization and at least transient supercell structures.
Large hail and localized strong/damaging gusts will continue to be a
threat for as long as these storms persist.

Longevity of the ongoing cluster remains uncertain, due to its
elevated nature and generally subtle large-scale ascent. The need
for watch issuance is likewise uncertain, but a longer-term severe
threat could evolve if this cluster can persist through the morning
and become closer to surface-based with time.

..Dean/Gleason.. 09/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8zy0J4o-k0ahY2Df9A4xM19PzxvkJkk4mrosIjPM8RF-VNAt7gmVzZVsNCKI3IFJwbgNaGPId_JHFkygh_SrThSogSA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON 47210312 47710283 47910152 47980065 47810021 47560009
47230028 46960046 46690089 46550148 46510210 46500247
46540294 46730317 47210312

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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