ACUS11 KWNS 220239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220239
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-220345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...Portions of east-central VA...southern MD...and the
Eastern Shore

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509...

Valid 220239Z - 220345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will continue
spreading eastward from east-central Virginia to the Eastern Shore
tonight -- within Severe Thunderstorms Watch 509.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KLWX shows a
north/south-oriented line segment tracking eastward across southern
MD, with additional less-organized multicell clusters moving
eastward across east-central VA. The primary severe risk will be
associated with the line segment as it overspreads southern MD and
the Eastern Shore over the next couple of hours, aided by an MCV,
established cold pool, and around 45 kt of line-orthogonal 0-6 km
shear (per LWX VWP). Given the linear mode, damaging gusts will
continue to be the main concern. The storms farther south over
east-central VA are generally in a less favorable air mass, though a
robust low-level jet (40-50 kt sampled by AKQ VWP) impinging on the
area will conditionally support embedded rotation and the potential
for locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado for the next hour or
so.

..Weinman.. 07/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4J4ODOogEAiUY1aldfDo0ta2S58CseIi4iW_HBnd4tKneEoNXg5CwIT8HcqH5ZMTpE--yZIFNl0Vx11MTkqqugGzVOs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38097783 38807676 38927620 38847549 38557507 38327512
37987532 37657585 37557636 37537732 37607770 37807787
38097783

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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