ACUS11 KWNS 220105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220104
TNZ000-KYZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

Valid 220104Z - 220300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of greater damaging wind potential appears to
be developing over middle Tennessee, including the Nashville
metropolitan area. Gusts up to 60-70 mph appear possible.

DISCUSSION...A line of intense storms has evolved over northern
middle TN as of 01Z, with KOHX base data sampling periodic
rear-inflow notches and channels of enhanced inbound winds. The 00Z
BNA sounding is likely representative of the inflow environment,
featuring MLCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg and around 40 kt of effective
bulk shear, which is aligned largely perpendicular to the
thunderstorm line. While low-level lapse rates aren't particularly
steep, the high instability/high PW environment will promote
water-loaded downdrafts capable of 60-70 mph wind gusts as the line
develops south-southeast through middle TN.

Extrapolation of current storm motion takes the line to the southern
fringe of the watch area by 0230Z. The watch may need to be locally
extended in area prior to that time.

..Mead.. 07/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_dQM81Lo4MQCfbdiYhOCKHwstCX9L2IY4hra9FhjGtmdLkJMql9BYqhQM4GHGj3TlMM-DILonm6NkSMU2tnyVezotdc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON 35888692 36518698 36658666 36648594 36328556 35728547
35418567 35328629 35438679 35888692

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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