ACUS11 KWNS 212142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212142
NJZ000-DEZ000-212315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern NJ

Concerning...Tornado Watch 507...

Valid 212142Z - 212315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 507 continues.

SUMMARY...A locally favorable corridor for damaging wind gusts is
evident in southern New Jersey for the next hour or two -- within
Tornado Watch 507.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms are tracking eastward across
far southwestern NJ, with some low/midlevel rotation evident in the
last 15 minutes or so. These storms are moving into a corridor of
strong heating/destabilization of a very moist PBL (upper 70s
dewpoints). This, combined with a long/mostly straight hodograph
(around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear per DIX VWP), will favor a continued
risk of organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts
as they track eastward across southern NJ during the next hour or
two. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, the ample PBL
moisture could support a brief tornado with any embedded
mesovortex/supercell structures.

..Weinman.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!48jsV4-Q9KQLUcHmc3J7frH29TMnG3xkrjoPQnNjiJ4M5pK4uMsiQx_xJqMXOiebx-qD21loOkycYsyzWe_T7-0uC9Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...

LAT...LON 39647539 40107480 40197446 40127406 39967394 39217434
38867476 38907514 39357554 39647539

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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