ACUS11 KWNS 212044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212043
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-212215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...eastern Virginia into the DelMarVa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509...

Valid 212043Z - 212215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue through the
afternoon and into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms across Virginia and into the DelMarVa have
mostly lacked structure thus far with only occasional stronger
multi-cell storms. As height falls overspread the area this evening,
expect more robust convection with a greater damaging wind threat
and an eventual line of storms along or ahead of the cold front,
advances east. In addition, strengthening mid-level and low-level
flow will assist in storm organization, further supporting the
threat.

..Bentley.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8FjewFG6sQXJtdHZAKtGlAZTwtqHJtHr7uXG98zRVVUw4-sMEX3cz9YPEoQZK-Yk8GYNskWjDfvC7zz2dGj0lQqvld8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 36648039 37457909 38317774 38907701 39477640 39497553
39107487 38507479 37967507 37297548 36677596 36648039

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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