ACUS11 KWNS 212024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212023
COZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-NVZ000-212230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of the eastern Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212023Z - 212230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening across much of the Great Basin. Isolated
damaging/severe wind gusts may occur with the strongest downdrafts.

DISCUSSION...18z observed soundings from GJT/SLC depicted dry,
increasingly well-mixed boundary layer profiles underlying steep
mid-level lapse rates. Amid enhanced mid-level moisture and ahead of
a weak mid-level perturbation along the western periphery of an
upper-level ridge, convective coverage is forecast to increase
through the afternoon as convective temperatures are breached.
Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles with LCLs of 2.5-3.0+ km will
promote efficient evaporative cooling and the potential for isolated damaging/severe wind gusts with downdrafts. The best potential for
this risk may manifest from southeastern Utah/far western Colorado
into central Utah where marginally stronger low-to-mid level flow
(20-25 kts sampled by the GJX/ICX VWPs) and effective shear (20-25
kts per latest objective analysis) may promote a loosely organized
convective cluster or two. The threat for damaging/severe wind gusts
is forecast to remain too isolated to warrant watch issuance at this
time, however.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5sYNi9Dwfa6kWmHGfkf5PO0n6ALW1nKvaJPF6dEZYdRSolOFgDi4fx0wlNi96RG_lkQXnf-XxfvpIjPNbnaeVfMzBIE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...LKN...

LAT...LON 37651219 38241325 39261416 40481446 41131416 41611339
41561219 41111100 40631010 40130941 39460876 38790857
37900872 37250932 37091006 37111048 37251135 37651219

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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