ACUS11 KWNS 210252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210252
MIZ000-WIZ000-210345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...northeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

Valid 210252Z - 210345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is expected to diminish by 04Z,
and an additional watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 0240Z, KGRB radar imagery showed the trailing
extension of a broader thunderstorm complex over Green Bay and
adjacent Door County, to the east of a weak surface front moving
into the area from the northwest. Both the KGRB and KMKX VWPs
indicate a gradual veering and strengthening of the low-level jet
with the strongest warm advection and moisture flux occurring across
Lake Michigan into lower MI. As such, the current expectation is
that the severe weather risk will continue to spread east of the
area through 04Z.

It should be noted that some of the 00Z CAMs suggest the potential
for isolated to widely scattered storm development in the 02-04Z
timeframe across eastern WI, so convective trends are being
monitored for that scenario.

..Mead.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7jyoApBIGi5GbXSfkZ7GJ6bFgokG13Pn4M9lTwHRBvlLkSV8rHDMz-fpi8QrXrr2-Uho1SIDPxbW47QXmrxTARKKiAk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 44348932 45348788 46178660 46498601 46178581 44508732
44078782 44068901 44348932

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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