ACUS11 KWNS 210130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210130
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-210300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...west-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504...

Valid 210130Z - 210300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for locally damaging wind gusts will
continue and may develop south of the watch area. Convective trends
are being monitored for a possible downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 0115Z, a small cluster of thunderstorms was
centered over Hancock and McDonough Counties, IL, with a system
motion of 325/25 kt. While distant from the radar, base velocity
data from KDVN show 60+ kt outbound values at ~7 kft above the
ground. Latest objective fields indicate poor low-level lapse rates
and increasing convective inhibition, which are likely limiting the
potential for the stronger winds aloft from reaching the ground.
These factors are expected to limit the potential for a more robust
damaging wind threat; however, isolated wind gusts of 60-65 mph will
remain possible for the next several hours.

..Mead.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aydOOCD75jpoyuVS0y0edIz39NxPffNHYq-MuWuRh5qSyBJ-7eziQ3L7NL46YRDTuK02UJCLUouoNxDebMAdLuQkUk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 39829105 40139147 40589147 40769081 40069032 39779059
39829105

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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