ACUS11 KWNS 210104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210104
MIZ000-WIZ000-210230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Areas affected...northeast Wisconsin into the central U.P. of
Michigan

Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

Valid 210104Z - 210230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a couple tornadoes and large hail continues
across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
as of 01Z with recent funnel cloud reports with discrete storms over
Marathon County, WI. The 00Z Green Bay soundings sampled a steep
lapse rate and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE in excess of
1500 J/kg. However, some degree of capping was observed in the
800-700 mb layer, which may be inhibiting storms from fully
realizing the available instability. Latest objective fields suggest
that 0-3 km CAPE may be larger in the vicinity of the front (and
recent funnel cloud reports), where low-level parcel accelerations
may be stronger.

Per the Green Bay observed sounding and current VWP, vertical shear
remains quite favorable for supercell modes with an attendant large
hail and tornado risk. Despite modestly strong low-level
storm-relative inflow, the spatial dimensions of the current storms
are small, suggesting that perhaps the aforementioned capping may be
diluting parcel buoyancy. As such, the extent of the tornado threat
remains uncertain. Large hail will also remain possible with the
strongest storms.

..Mead.. 07/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-4ZUCMi734hfzyRBRuBkdC-AktmuaNnMN7Nn9PUmbJvKKA9DE3_qymnDUWuR6PLgZPeX8IWbZcJxKN9X-1TFT5oLyY8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 44429019 45049000 45598912 45968772 46108722 46228632
45738643 45098712 44328763 44328846 44429019

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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