ACUS11 KWNS 200213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200212
SDZ000-NDZ000-200345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1668
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...south-central/southeast ND and
north-central/northeast SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

Valid 200212Z - 200345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will continue spreading
eastward across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499. Some severe
risk may extend eastward out of the watch, and convective trends are
being monitored.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KBIS indicates some signs of
a consolidating cold pool as storms continue spreading eastward
across south-central ND and north-central SD. In the near-term,
isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the primary
concerns with an evolving cluster and splitting cells. The ABR 00Z
sounding sampled steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm and very
moist PBL (middle 70s dewpoints), resulting in a strongly unstable
downstream air mass. This, combined with around 50 kt of effective
shear oriented perpendicular to the evolving gust front, could
support a continued risk of severe wind gusts east of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 499. However, some lingering low-level inhibition
in the ABR sounding and a gradual increase in nocturnal static
stability may temper the overall risk. Current thinking is that a
downstream watch will not be needed, though convective trends are
being monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-ufpGLlp175g_BRSYfKaDPe5ggKls-nyfroBqfnvW-FK6cD1xAekpC9RU6zSWhcnpa8AtLaSt_PsbKz5JFSA4GkOYCI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46709937 46839887 46819800 46649736 46369709 45829709
45289727 44969780 44849852 44899950 45079994 45270025
45580025 46709937

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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