ACUS11 KWNS 192249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192248
NCZ000-VAZ000-200015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of NC and southern VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

Valid 192248Z - 200015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
continues.

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind remains possible through early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms are ongoing across parts of NC
into far southern VA. With MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and large PW in
place, occasionally vigorous updrafts and subsequent downdrafts will
remain possible through early evening. However, the widely scattered
storm coverage and lack of sustained storm clustering has limited
coverage of the damaging-wind threat thus far.

The most favorable effective shear (25-35 kt) resides across
southern VA into northeast NC, though storms have remained isolated
across these areas. While coverage may remain rather sparse in this
area, any new or ongoing cells may be able to persist through the
early evening with a threat of localized damaging wind. Farther
south, the weaker shear will continue to result in more of a pulse
character to storm development/evolution, though the large PW will
support potential for wet microbursts.

A gradual decrease in the severe wind threat is expected with time
through the evening. However, nocturnal cooling/stabilization will
be slow within the very moist environment, and a localized
wind-damage threat may persist beyond the 00 UTC expiration time of
WW 498.

..Dean.. 07/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6Rom90jUtX1GNXeN4zks3ZSyBw8GeI9hVHGkJAeWyOE--xQmcspQ9rEEsnmsMPBGa3sAAs8oPXGZoYOf1P-31vK2wzw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 34727575 34857882 34818003 35708044 36348057 36558057
36778029 36817957 36717828 37127729 37327683 37297644
37197612 36527580 35847559 35147564 34727575

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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