ACUS11 KWNS 182346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182346
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-190045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1657
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeast NY...Long Island...and far
southwest CT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182346Z - 190045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An eastward-moving band of thunderstorms will pose a
localized risk of strong to damaging wind gusts for the next hour or
so.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band or thunderstorms is tracking
eastward into Long Island. The KOKX VWP is sampling around 45 kt of line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear, which may continue to support an
organized cold pool as it continues eastward, despite marginal
buoyancy. Given the established cold pool, 30-40 kt of flow in the
lowest 2 km, and at least neutral static stability in the boundary
layer, strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be possible over
the next hour or so. The overall severe risk is expected to remain
too localized/marginal for a watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-jj6BSpFWRV4Ve8KGBxjRZIWLfdm9_MDVkHnJTogFv9NVYuZ2k5bY20tKpta23YxeyaJyt591Bo9FcM1U4m_HMQ5xP4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...

LAT...LON 40417330 40467371 40667399 40947421 41187410 41327367
41217298 40977259 40607272 40417330

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)