ACUS11 KWNS 181757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181756
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-181900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...ortions of southern Virginia...western North
Carolina...far northeast Tennessee...southeastern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 181756Z - 181900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to
increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind
gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is likely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the higher
terrain of WV, NC and VA at 1755z, and also along a confluence zone
extending from northern VA into western NC. Despite weak mid-level
lapse rates, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer has
contributed to MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates
of 8.5 to 9 deg/C. In the presence of minimal CINH, storms should
continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon and move
generally east. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer will average 20-25
kts across northern portions of the discussion area and 15-20 kts
farther south, sufficient for updraft organization and a risk for
damaging wind gusts.

Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
needed shortly.

..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Dl7j6qq7L2ECy5DlUnnNbK34CcMg0Mn_WHjGF2vbkLSkFgypBVnBmHG_lpFp-kTWM7M8gO2PjEt3pS9aiUJ9bFmiU0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 36938187 37458132 37957998 38207909 38197842 37907734
37557681 36927645 36077666 35487802 35237929 35118087
35298160 35678207 36228209 36938187

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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