ACUS11 KWNS 181618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181618
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-181815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 181618Z - 181815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm intensification is possible early this afternoon.
Wind damage will be the main risk in the short term. A watch may
become necessary depending on trends in downstream destabilization.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed near the southern shores of
Lakes Erie/Ontario. This activity is in relatively close proximity
to the upper-level shortwave trough now moving into Lower Michigan. Temperatures in western/central New York have struggled to warm
significantly due to earlier precipitation and cloud cover. Farther
southwest, temperatures have already risen into the mid/upper 80s F.
While storms could potentially produce damaging winds as
temperatures continue to warm into the afternoon, the downstream
environment is not currently very favorable. It is probable that it
will take a few more hours of heating before a more organized severe
threat can develop along the synoptic cold front. Trends in storm coverage/intensity will need to be monitored. Timing for a possible
watch is the main uncertainty at this time.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-zOefoil8g9bXbK9qWUz9-s1onedL1wWgs3hoxZgsq8LgIVNDSzb7m8JqONjOldFLVnMidF9skTvPRId1qIveQ7FZP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 43467733 43347687 43017673 41757787 40937927 40597980
40478060 40458129 40608172 40958183 41578133 41868096
42607931 43317865 43487804 43467733

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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