ACUS11 KWNS 150445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150444
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-150615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1621
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern New York into Vermont and New
Hampshire.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...

Valid 150444Z - 150615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to persist across the
western portions of WW489 into the overnight hours. Hail and
damaging winds are the most likely hazards.

DISCUSSION...As of 0440 UTC, a cluster of severe storms, including a
robust supercell over St Lawrence County NY, are ongoing across
western portions of WW489. Moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer
shear remain in place ahead of this convection, and new storm
development just across the ON border. Hail is the most likely
threat tonight, especially with the aforementioned supercell showing
peak MRMS MESH of 2+ inches and a persistent cellular storm mode.
Damaging winds are also possible with the stronger cells, though
upscale growth appears limited given the very strong deep-layer
shear. A tornado also cannot be ruled out given the ongoing
supercells and strong vertical shear.

With the favorable parameter space likely to persist tonight, severe
potential should be maximized across parts of northern NY, into VT
and southern NH. Storm should begin to weaken late tonight as they
approach a more stable air mass into southern New England.

..Lyons.. 07/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8b6Y5KU1HrsIagxWLjpYEYA73ihARwE3c876zxrFgDvUXF-dIVpAsN7AnCFnaxcM1qU7RKt-8o-zO_52vDUkobNofxQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 44537274 44167218 43637149 43287141 42997161 42977210
43277331 44137519 44527574 45027513 45177451 44997374
44537274

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)