ACUS11 KWNS 130028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130027
MTZ000-130230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern and eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 130027Z - 130230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...High-based showers and thunderstorms will be capable of
sporadic severe gusts this evening, but a WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 0025 UTC, radar imagery shows high-based showers
and storms have developed over parts of northern and eastern MT.
Very hot surface temperatures (110+ F) are supporting very deep
surface mixed layer depths of the order of 3-5 km. Within this deep
dry boundary layer, dry adiabatic lapse rates and strong evaporation
potential exist, which is supporting stronger downdrafts and dry
microburst potential. Several mesonet stations have shown outflow
gusts of45-55 kt so far. This should continue this evening, given
the modest buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) atop the deep and dry
inverted v profiles.

Broader storm organization potential appears limited however, owing
to relatively modest buoyancy and dryness in the sub-cloud layer.
While some clustering of stronger showers and outflow could develop
as they move north toward the Canadian border where buoyancy is
larger, a WW appears unlikely given the lack of more coherent
convective organization.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_r7hGxcNw57jVqFSBzgZlFO5ILSfHEtHSZ8Sc7a475FxVIhBsHD57ivN4nruqid3SZ7UrgJPq0bzjRluR85O5L5wE7E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 47351203 48931016 49070973 49040499 47930620 47100805
46491028 46251125 46591184 47351203

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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