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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0975

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 4 01:10:03 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 040109
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040109=20
    SDZ000-040245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0975
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of south-central into southeast SD

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 271...

    Valid 040109Z - 040245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 271 continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
    localized severe gusts will continue through dusk.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell with a history of producing a
    tornado is ongoing this evening between Chamberlain and Winner, SD.
    A general increase in convection has been noted to the
    east/northeast of this cell, and also to its south along a cold
    front. While low-level flow is generally modest across the region,
    some increase has recently been noted in the KABR VWP. Also, surface observations indicate strengthening southeasterly surface winds to
    the east of the primary supercell and expanding area of convection,
    suggesting some localized increase in low-level shear/SRH. As a
    result, some tornado threat will continue with this increasing storm
    cluster through dusk. Increasing storm coverage may result in modest
    upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat, though cell
    mergers could also briefly enhance tornado potential. Otherwise,
    large to very large hail will continue to be a threat with any
    sustained supercells.

    ..Dean.. 06/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Wf0NuVG8zP2vzOO3CiwjP_1HMpJyApMcfUK4HKENm78Ah3bNnW2hsiNx7MeezlbaUIsUnidg= msl0qBUvO5uA9EmCvo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43099989 43639971 44289864 44459772 44289756 43869750
    43559762 43299792 43109841 43109894 43099989=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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