ACUS11 KWNS 032050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032050=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-032315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern New Mexico into West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032050Z - 032315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a risk for
isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance or two of large
hail this evening into the early overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery and lightning data depict
continued thunderstorm development across high terrain areas and
along cold pool boundaries across portions of western New Mexico,
southeastern Arizona, and northern Mexico. Expectation is for this
activity to gradually evolve into southern New Mexico and West Texas
through this evening/afternoon as remaining inhibition (evident in
latest objective analysis and the 18z EPZ observed sounding) erodes.
The greatest potential for isolated severe through early this
evening appears to exist across southern New Mexico and the Big Bend
region of Texas where objective analysis and visible satellite
suggest remaining inhibition is weaker. This potential should then
gradually spread into the remainder of the discussion area (across
West Texas) later in the evening as the stronger inhibition
lingering across this area erodes and low-level lapse rates steepen.

Latest guidance and RAP forecast soundings depict deepening boundary
layer mixing through the evening amid continued insolation. This
should yield modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles by
this evening with steep low-level lapse rates and LCLs of around
2500-3000 m promoting the potential for isolated damaging wind
gusts. Weak effective shear (generally around 20 kts or less) will
largely preclude updraft organization, but some clustering/upscale
growth is possible with any coalescing cold pools. Isolated large
hail also cannot be ruled out with the most robust cores given steep
mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8+ C/km sampled by the 18z EPZ sounding).
Watch issuance is not expected at this time owing to the limited magnitude/coverage of the severe threat.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Jpxr8Mnq8z2zUkJHdyreELfYbr8lGBAZGAA7mFa5cw9iP0Krfx010hW6GjZJDWb1vJxp9BWZ= B9WBzvG4SKJWg4d97Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 29140282 30500349 31550416 32320471 32730504 33030530
33180546 33240567 33300606 33330674 33290734 33220788
33090844 32950879 32720900 32490899 32150901 31830892
31500879 31280864 31210839 31220817 31410803 31600793
31600660 31180608 30680540 30270490 29910482 29550466
29230423 28980367 28800321 28820301 29140282=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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