ACUS11 KWNS 030157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030156=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0966
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...Southwest South Dakota into northwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

Valid 030156Z - 030400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail and wind will likely persist for
the next hour or two, but a gradual weakening trend is anticipated
beyond 04 UTC.

DISCUSSION...A robust convective band has been slowly moving
eastward across southwest SD with several intense updraft pulses
embedded within the line per recent MRMS VIL and GOES IR imagery.
Given residual buoyancy analyzed immediately downstream of this band
in latest mesoanalysis estimates, some severe hail/wind threat may
linger for the next hour or so - especially on the southern flank of
the line where low-level convergence should increase in response to
a strengthening nocturnal jet.=20

However, this band will continue to push into the cold pool of a
preceding MCV/squall line (currently over central SD) where
temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s. The coming onset of
nocturnal cooling should reduce near-surface temperatures further
and increase inhibition. Diminishing deep-layer shear with eastward
extent will also promote a higher chance for outflow-dominant
convection and a gradual weakening trend. Based on latest forecast
guidance, the severe threat should substantially diminish after
approximately 04 UTC.

..Moore.. 06/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6NXTPLXgD4_ksxUreqfg2RH0ISAg9h-BgnyECkdJqT2n4kVr5CLJr5VPyaPF5QG3jlKF74knI= JAI0YlR1F6a9WOXYJ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 42840350 43670254 43800238 43910205 44050098 43780069
43470069 43170076 42910096 42760123 42520185 42460230
42390277 42410313 42470341 42640352 42840350=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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