ACUS11 KWNS 022248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022248=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-030115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...Parts of south-central and eastern NM into west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 022248Z - 030115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and localized severe gusts will
continue into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Several slow-moving but vigorous storms are ongoing
from parts of south-central/eastern NM into Far West TX as of 2230
UTC, while more isolated strong storms have moved into the western
TX Panhandle. Strong heating and relatively moist low-level
east-southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates has
resulted in moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE of
greater than 2000 J/kg in place outside of areas already influenced
by convective outflow.=20

Deep-layer flow is generally weak, but the backed low-level flow
veering to weak south-southwesterlies aloft is supporting effective
shear of 20-25 kt, with locally greater values over parts of NM. In
conjunction with the favorable instability, this magnitude of
deep-layer will continue to support potential for strong multicells
and perhaps a transient slow-moving supercell, with attendant
potential for isolated hail and localized severe gusts. Some
consolidation of outflow is possible with time, which could result
in a somewhat broader area of strong to locally severe gusts from
eastern NM into parts of west TX this evening, before convection
generally weakens with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6iUbGVhXZYW7nbmzrkAFpSlU_KB3-daaL4m9EbpL8ejl0X2YvFpxGz7xEZKt9zZI4CfMPrw--= FIwdqd3r6aqxx-BLHU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 30920518 32200594 33330650 33960465 34660449 35080352
35320312 35830269 36400204 36370169 36060146 35540134
33760218 31830304 29550262 29030308 29180368 29550425
29840455 30490498 30920518=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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