ACUS11 KWNS 022154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022153=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

Valid 022153Z - 030000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms will likely increase
over the next 2-3 hours across far northeast Wyoming and into
western South Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows several new attempts at
convective initiation along a weak surface confluence zone draped
across eastern WY into far southeast MT. At least one of these early
attempts is exhibiting steady growth with increasing lightning
counts, suggesting that sustained deep convection is likely in the
next hour or so across northeast WY. Further south, a few cells
within a broader convective cluster are also showing signs of
intensification based on MRMS VIL trends.=20

This activity will gradually spread northeast over the next few
hours where MLCAPE was recently sampled just over 1500 J/kg with
weak inhibition by a special sounding near Newell, SD (north of the
Rapid City area). This sounding also depicted an elongated hodograph
featuring around 45 knots of effective bulk shear, which will
support organized storms, including the potential for splitting
supercells. Latest CAM guidance appears to be capturing this
environment well and shows an increase in storm coverage and
intensity across western WY over the next 2-3 hours. Based on
current satellite/radar trends, discrete supercells with an
attendant large/very large hail, and perhaps tornado threat, appear
most likely across northwest SD. Further south, upscale growth of
convection in east-central WY will likely support an increasing wind
threat across southwest SD.

..Moore.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!98dWq--UBgMpJgp6b2ddmwI5zfAnc6vqaKewtjKK1fk0jMWc4P3hiiGRSHoVIthQzxutGE5gO= 2JfCNlenHZfSxEhgYI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 44560471 45890343 46160258 46130202 45970164 45640139
45310147 44940177 43320289 43100319 43010371 43000424
43010454 43160479 43560498 44240487 44560471=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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