ACUS11 KWNS 020440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020439=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-020645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268...

Valid 020439Z - 020645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268
continues.

SUMMARY...A well organized MCS will continue to move into a very
unstable airmass across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
Although deep-layer shear will weaken across the MCS as it moves
east, the degree of instability and organized nature of the MCS will
support a continue damaging wind threat across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #268.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a well organized linear
MCS moving east-southeast across southern Kansas and far northern
Oklahoma this evening, with perhaps a mesoscale convective vortex
beginning to organize across Stafford County, KS, near where several
measured thunderstorm wind gusts were recorded between 60 and 70
MPH. Father south, a measured 59 MPH wind gust was reported in
Woodward County, OK, as the gust front passed.

The overall environment along and ahead of the organized MCS remains
quite unstable, with an axis of MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg
stretching southeast from southern portions of the MCS into
southeast Oklahoma. While the thermodynamic environment remains very
favorable, the kinematic environment weakens quickly with eastward
extent as effective deep-layer shear values quickly drop off from
around 30-35 knots across the MCS now to less than 20 knots across
eastern portions of the watch.

Despite the weakening kinematic environment ahead of the MCS, the
organized nature of the MCS and presence of a developing MCV will
support the potential for strong, damaging thunderstorm winds on the
leading edge of the MCS into the less favorable environment. As
such, the threat for damaging wind gusts will continue across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #268.

..Marsh.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-EOThLYVZSGNJgDAeTGGcqZKzeSzokl4lS9XLoqvmdDYR022giGmOiX1KdHCt45KeAfGrjEpZ= mKPH71RQ9M1koUAtd0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36669980 37539932 38829912 38329722 37399657 36329745
36669980=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)