ACUS11 KWNS 020120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020119=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-020245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...eastern Montana and far western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020119Z - 020245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms across the region will pose a
threat for strong, gusty thunderstorm winds capable of producing
isolated damage. A watch is not expected given the isolated nature
of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing across eastern Montana
this evening in association with modest large-scale ascent
associated with a strong mid-upper-level cyclone across the
Montana/Canada border. Additionally, an 80-knot upper-level jet
streak is nosing across the area.=20

Modest instability (MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg or less) and strong
deep-layer shear on the order of 50 knots will support strong, gusty thunderstorm winds given the overall strength of the flow. The
threat should diminish later this evening as the storms move into an increasingly stable environment.=20

A watch is not anticipated given the isolated nature of any severe
potential.

..Marsh.. 06/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Fx5SpzUwh7bq1aQUlDrQypmq85CilNkYUuF45RwtTX5FYKwYbtt6S8TxblOq-mSgm40Qa77L= aW2T9QZykZj8hG1u6Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46000639 47050643 48120447 47540287 46410376 45840526
46000639=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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