ACUS11 KWNS 012319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012319=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012319Z - 020115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...pass

DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a stalled outflow boundary
located across northeast Oklahoma, stretching from northeast Grant
County east-southeast to Tulsa County, then east toward the ongoing
convection in Northwest Arkansas. Sustained surface convergence
along this slowly moving outflow boundary, coupled with peak
heating, has resulted in isolated thunderstorm development across
Tulsa County and additional attempts over Mayes County.=20

The environment is extremely unstable with MUCAPE in excess of 5000
J/kg along and just south of the boundary. Kinematically speaking,
deep-layer shear is still rather weak at less than 25 knots. Thus,
the overall background environment is favorable for thunderstorms to
quickly become intense, but unfavorable for sustained thunderstorm organization. The result will be the potential for marginally severe
hail as thunderstorms near their peak intensity with a transition
toward strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows as thunderstorms
collapse. In fact, broadcast media reports 1" hail has recently
occurred in the city of Tulsa with that initial thunderstorm.

Additionally, given the degree of instability in the presence of an
outflow boundary, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any
storm-boundary interactions despite the absence of strong deep-layer
shear.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8qZ8qUZ3XN0hVyqs9roDU2jl6r06Ew4TGB2C4feiHnxPCPkm6H2TlHEyUYvxQU4nExANlB9Rf= mXnSMaxmO_K23yKKz4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35679512 35969616 36329704 36879758 37139714 36719597
36489475 36349457 35809453 35679512=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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