ACUS11 KWNS 012216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012216=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-020015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...North central Arkansas into northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...263...

Valid 012216Z - 020015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261, 263
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase across central
to eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi in the next couple of
hours. While hail remains a short-term concern, the potential for
damaging wind will likely increase in the coming hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a collection of pulse
convection and loosely organized convective bands across
north-central AR into far northwest MS. This activity continues to
occasionally intensify to near severe limits based on MRMS
vertically integrated ice and MESH data, but the weakly sheared
environment is largely limiting the longevity of individual cells.=20

Nonetheless, a more persistent cluster is emerging across
north-central AR with discernible southward propagation that
suggests a cold pool is becoming well established. Given very high
buoyancy immediately downstream it appears likely that this cluster
will persist and may increase in coverage as new convection develops
near or along the cold pool. Additionally, new cells are emerging
along a residual outflow boundary draped east/southeastward into
northwest MS with upscale growth likely as thunderstorm coverage
increases and cold pool amalgamation occurs. The expectation over
the next few hours is that one or more prominent clusters (and/or a
loosely organized MCS) will emerge out of north-central to
east-central AR with an increasing potential for damaging winds.

..Moore.. 06/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ViqzKe-ekjzkbDWd6g08pmNzR7LUcCMZ8oCkr_FC2HzPLHQjTedsQhB8T8pMdJw5sADa-w6Y= kZrSOWvGiqai1_DQ9I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 33678952 33618984 33809010 34079065 34279107 34469156
34869257 35179314 35399352 35599370 35929380 36219359
36419329 36489291 36429204 36169123 35158977 34788938
34238926 33868928 33678952=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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