818
AXNT20 KNHC 281027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into
the waters offshore of northeast Florida this morning, reach from
31N64W to West Palm Beach early Sun morning, from 29N55W to
Hispaniola by early Mon morning, stalls from 25N55W to the
Dominican Republic early Tue morning before it dissipates late on
Wed. Strong high pressure will follow the front. This will bring
strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very
rough seas to 14 ft from this morning through early Sun morning.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 01N24W. The ITCZ
then continues from that point to 01S36W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of
both boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving into the northern Gulf this morning. As of
0600 UTC the front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE
Louisiana to Houston, Texas and into NE Mexico where it stalls.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds follows the front along with seas to
3 ft per surface observations. Ahead of the front, a surface ridge
supports moderate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas to 6
ft over the regions of strongest winds, including the Bay of
Campeche and the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a trough over the Bay of Campeche will support
moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the
Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the middle of the
next week. The cold front will reach the Tampa Bay area by this
evening, and move southeast of the basin on Sun. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the
front over the northern Gulf this morning and over the eastern
Gulf late today through Sun. The pressure gradient will remain
strong enough to sustain fresh east winds and moderate to rough
seas across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through
the middle of the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds
off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 5 to 8
ft range over these waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the central and western
basin. Gentle to moderate trades are ongoing across the eastern
Caribbean with moderate seas. Otherwise, isolated showers remain
over the NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the gradient of pressure between a ridge
extending to the northern Caribbean and the low pressure over NW
Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale-force NE to
E winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Wed night.
Moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and just south of Hispaniola will reach strong speeds
tonight through the end of the forecast period due to strong high
pressure building in the wake of cold front that will move through
the SW N Atlantic waters today through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING.

A broad surface ridge continues to extend across the central and
eastern subtropical Atlantic waters with a weakness analyzed as a
surface trough from 31N58W to 24N63W. Scattered showers are to the
east of the trough N of 20N between 45W and 62W. Moderate to
locally fresh winds and moderate seas are over the central and
eastern basin, except for rough seas to 9 ft in NE decaying swell
west of the Canary Islands. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds
are mainly light to gentle ahead of an approachig cold front,
except for moderate to fresh over the Great Bahama Bank, including
the approaches of the Windward Passage.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front will move into
the waters offshore of northeast Florida this morning, reach from
31N64W to West Palm Beach early Sun morning, from 29N55W to
Hispaniola by early Mon morning, stalls from 25N55W to the
Dominican Republic early Tue morning before it dissipates late on
Wed. Strong high pressure will follow the front. This will bring
strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very
rough seas from this morning through early Sun morning. As the
strong high pressure moves eastward across the Atlantic, expect
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across
most of the forecast region likely through Wed.

$$
Ramos
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)