ACUS11 KWNS 270058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270058=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Kansas into northern
Missouri and far southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270058Z - 270300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected over the
next few hours to the north of a surface cold front currently
analyzed across portions of northern/central Missouri, with
marginally severe hail possible. Watch issuance is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of
far southern Iowa, with a recent uptick in lightning activity noted.
Additional activity is expected to expand southwestward into
portions of northern/central Missouri and eastern Kansas over the
next few hours as modest mid-level ascent overspreading the frontal
zone erodes a lingering mid-level warm layer evident in the 00Z TOP
sounding near 600-650 mb. This is supporting 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE
per latest mesoanalysis. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates around
6.5-7 C/km and effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts may support some
potential for isolated severe hail, particularly with any stronger
cores that can become better established. Narrow buoyancy profiles
and limited instability within the hail growth zone should temper
the overall threat, however.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 03/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6qBcNUb3PDvFseE0pJZPAZYG_ldbnSwvXy-5VTaGNq2l4jp9u9JQtWy4tq8JoNLACMujGeRS6= vbTApaiOeHkxytMDFc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39759496 40049454 40399390 40889320 41129264 41109225
40909192 40439160 39979140 39439132 38869153 38509199
38199293 38059345 37939396 37939450 38049499 38259534
38609551 39059539 39449518 39759496=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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