ACUS11 KWNS 070236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070236=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-070630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Areas affected...parts of eastern West Virginia and adjacent
portions of western Maryland/Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 070236Z - 070630Z

SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow (at rates occasionally
up to 1+ inches per hour) and strengthening surface gusts to 30-40+
kt may develop by Midnight to 1 AM EST, accompanied by considerable
blowing and drifting of snow and occasionally sharply reduced
visibilities.

DISCUSSION...Mostly light to moderate snow overspreading the upper
Ohio Valley toward the western Allegheny Plateau is being supported
by forcing for ascent downstream of a vigorous short wave trough of
Arctic origins, which is forecast to continue digging across and south-southeast of the lower Great Lakes region late this evening.=20
This is accompanied by a reinforcing cold front, which Rapid Refresh
indicates will begin overspreading the western slopes of the
Alleghenies during the 04-07Z time frame.=20=20

As this occurs, low-level flow is likely to veer to an increasing
northwesterly upslope component across the higher terrain,
contributing to strengthening upward vertical motion. Forecast
soundings indicate that this lift, coupled with low-level cold
advection, will contribute to saturating profiles with steepening
lapse rates. It appears that this may become supportive of the
development of very weak CAPE through a layer between 850-700 mb, as temperatures within this layer cool to around and below -15 C.=20=20=20

Despite rather low precipitable water content falling below .20
inches, and the low residence height (higher pressure) of the
dendritic growth zone, the strong orographically enhanced low-level
lift and convective component may compensate, and support a period
of moderate to occasionally heavy snow rates on the order of .5-1+
inches per hour. This is also likely to coincide with downward
mixing of strengthening low-level wind fields which may support
30-40 kt surface gusts, contributing to considerable drifting and
occasional sharply reduced visibilities.

..Kerr.. 02/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9KIy1E12bLQi04OFS9FIp3VC4CiBJ5GEKLO7tgBxXQ8UD4_jL1rNabG_4VrRZE4nHYO0CUgL_= 1bB1hm4KrewvGzbsLQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 40027941 39447926 38717968 38158040 38448069 38578056
39128016 39627996 40027941=20


=3D =3D =3D
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