ACUS11 KWNS 102101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102101=20
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-102300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern Nevada and adjacent portions of
southeastern California and southwestern Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102101Z - 102300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of sustained strong thunderstorms may develop
through 3-5 PM PDT, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a still broad, deep mid-level low
centered offshore of the Oregon coast, moistening on southerly
low-level flow across the lower Colorado Valley into Mohave Desert
is contributing to modest boundary-layer destabilization with
insolation, beneath a residual pocket of cooler mid-level
temperatures. This is occurring in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear, beneath a belt of 50-60 kt flow around 300 mb
focused across southern Nevada and adjacent portions of southeastern
California and southwestern Utah.

Latest objective analysis and forecast soundings indicate the
presence of lingering mid-level inhibition, but this is eroding and
will continue to do so with additional boundary-layer warming and
perhaps increasing large-scale forcing for ascent. Showers have
begun to develop, with lightning already evident with one cell near
the California/Nevada border to the southwest of Las Vegas. Further intensification seems probable during the next few hours, leading to
sustained scattered thunderstorm development.

Embedded within an environment characterized by southwesterly 30 kt
deep-layer mean flow, stronger storms with evolving supercell
structures will tend to propagate eastward/southeastward into early
evening accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and
localized potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7YsGi7OYFtLuaSRfNogUnAUDAaL4c3mNQJ44AnrHFuRTcd536JbOZkHTQE77ONf86ykMLQ6p1= esfGdpFoXr3iwms-TI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON 35701644 36721567 38601423 38391284 37641272 36251386
35171491 34861614 35701644=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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